Study of Peak Oil and Gas Essay Example for Free

Study of Peak Oil and Gas Essay In 2004, the world production of oil was estimated at just over 29. 7 Bbl. The corresponding world consumption for oil during the same period was estimated at 29. 6 Bbl of oil, leaving a surplus of just under 0. 1 Bbl at the end of the year. In the United States, one of largest consumer markets for oil and oil products, from the first week in September 2004 to the first week in September 2005, gasoline prices increased by a staggering $1. 22 per gallon to $3. 12 before dropping to $2. 25 on November 21, 2005. These figures are quite staggering considering that contracts for crude changed hands at 10 USD/barrel in 1999. With the emergence of China in the global market and its increasing demand for oil, it is projected that unless oil companies are able to increase the world production by investing investment in oil and natural-gas production oil prices could increase exponentially over the next ten (10) years. The obvious factor in determining the supply of oil in the world is the amount of oil that can actually be extracted and processed. Oil is essentially a non-renewable energy source and cannot be replenished once it has been extracted from the ground. The role of oil companies and countries is not in the actual production of oil but in it rationing. A network of scientists called the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) which is affiliated with a wide array of global institutions and universities studies the depletion rate of oil. ASPO studies concern themselves in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints. The ASPO uses the â€Å"Peak Oil Theory† or the â€Å"Hubbert Peak Theory† which is a method of modeling known oil reserves and production rates and routinely used by oil companies to predict future yields of existing oil fields (Legget, 2005). Using this model, it has been projected that the world oil production growth trends, in the short term, have been decreasing over the last 18 months. Average yearly gains in world oil production from 1987 to 2005 were 1. 2 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) (1. 7%). Global production averaged 84. 4 mbbl/d in 2005, up only 0. 2 mbbl/d (0. 2%), from 84. 2 mbbl/d (13. 4 million m? /d) in Q4 2004 (Legget, 2005). ASPO predicts that conventional plus unconventional oil production will peak around 2007 What this data basically means is that the current supplies of oil all over the world are being depleted and newer sources have not yet been discovered. To bring the supply of oil up again, oil companies must invest more in locating more oil fields and also develop new technologies to improve the current refining processes to allow for a more efficient production of oil. This first factor in the supply of oil is basically dependent on the actual amount of oil that can be produced and processed and also considers the capacity of oil companies to refine oil more efficiently and to tap other sources of oil (Deffeyes, 2005). This factor however also heavily depends on the capital investments that oil companies make in the oil industry. One of the main factors which affect the demand for oil is the price of oil. But given the fact that oil is a necessary resource and that it is a non-renewable energy sources, the supply can basically only remain at a certain â€Å"Peak† level depending on the amount which can actually be processed and the demand also remains at a certain level even if oil prices continue to rise (Case, 1999). Ordinarily, if the resources were renewable, there would be perfect elasticity between the supply and the demand in proportion to the increase or change in the price. Therefore, if the price of oil were to increase, it would theoretically result in the demand for oil to decrease (Case, 1999). This assumption however cannot be applied to the case of oil because, as mentioned earlier, oil is a non-renewable resources and remains as the primary source of energy in the world today. This shows the inelastic demand for oil. The reason for this is that since oil remains the main energy source in most countries, the demand for oil will remain constant despite the changes in the price of oil (Case, 1999). While theoretically it is expected that there will be a greater demand for oil if the price decreases, it is important to factor in the fact that more governments around the world are implementing energy saving policies as well as trying to reduce to dependence on oil as an energy source by developing alternative sources of energy (hybrid cars, solar power, hydroelectric power) (Simmons, 2005). The fact that oil is a non-renewable resource must also be considered. The next factor which affects demand for oil is the availability of alternative energy sources which are cheaper (Bilgen, 2004). The presence of substitutes in a market allows the demand for oil to decrease if the price continues to increase (Case, 1999). Before discussing this factor, it is important to remember that the development of alternative energy sources is not in proportion to the increasing rate of demand for oil. The presence of substitutes in a market affects demand because any increase in the price of the commodity means that the consumers have an alternative and can lower their demand for the commodity and purchase the substitute instead (Case, 1999). The same principle applies for oil except that it must be remembered that the development of these substitutes or alternative sources of energy takes a considerably longer amount of time than conventional substitutes. However, under the assumption that there are already alternative sources of energy available in the market, it can be expected that the demand will react accordingly to any increase in the price of oil. The dependence on oil as an energy source will decrease thus reducing the demand for oil in proportion to the price increases (Pimentel, 1998). The challenge remains however for countries and governments to find ways to find alternative energy sources to reduce the world dependence on oil as an energy source and ease the burden that the increasing prices have on the consumer. While the government may effectively regulate its use, the best solution is still in the development of energy substitutes for the market (Pimentel, 1998). Other factors which also have an effect on the demand for oil are things such as the government regulations on the use of fossil fuels, energy saving campaigns and environmental regulations. The government can implement these measures by increasing taxes or imposing fines. The effect that this has on demand is simple. The government regulations effectively reduce demand because the consumers are restricted from buying more oil. By encouraging the implementation of energy saving policies, oil consumption is also greatly decreased thus affecting the demand. The demand for oil therefore is affected by many factors such as price, availability of substitutes, and government intervention in the form of taxes, energy regulations and price controls. References: Bahree, B. (2006) Investment by Oil Industry Stalls November 8, 2006 Wall Street Journal November 2006 Bilgen, S. and Kaygusuz, K. (2004) Renewable Energy for a Clean and Sustainable Future, Energy Sources 26, 1119 Case, K. and Fair, R. (1999). Principles of Economics (5th ed. ). Prentice-Hall Deffeyes, K. (2005). Beyond Oil: The View from Hubberts Peak. Hill and Wang publishing House. Hill and Wang United States Leggett, J. (2005). The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Financial Catastrophe. Random House. Pimentel, D. (1998). Energy and Dollar Costs of Ethanol Production with Corn Hubbert Center Newsletter, 98/2. M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies, p. 8. Simmons, M. (2005). Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. Random House

Lord Of The Flies - Whats The Point? :: essays research papers

Lord of the Flies - What’s the Point?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Lord of the Flies, a literary classic, examines specific social and human nature issues. The boys experience power and leadership struggles, a battle with sadism, and the never-ending fight for the role of intellectuals in society. The author William Golding, presents human nature as a contrast to the reality of the boys on the island.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Jack and Ralph were two boys who both wanted to be the leader. From the very beginning of the book the two boys had disagreements. Jack thought that he should be leader. Ralph was the central character and he had a lot of pressure put on him to come up with ideas for survival. That’s where Piggy comes in; he was the never noticed sidekick of Ralph. Piggy always came up with the acceptable ideas to help Ralph be the preferred leader. Ralph was a democrat, he wanted order and things to be accomplished. Such as the rescue fire and huts being built. At first everyone wanted to help and get everything achieved, but soon after the tasks went to a few people. The boys who did not want to work wanted to play. That is when Jack started to do whatever he wanted. At first Jack preferred rules, but after the book progressed he slowly put the things he wanted first; that’s when the battle for leadership starts between Jack and Ralph. Jack wanted to have fun and to hunt. He was the appointed leader of the hunters and he had an addiction to kill. Jack got satisfaction out of slaughtering animals, it made him feel commanding and powerful. Jack represented dictatorship and showed how everything should be his way. He played on the fear of the boys and persuades them to join his tribe. Jack had his own agenda to follow. Now that he had control over so many boys, he could have his own fort with guards. Anytime he wanted Jack and his hunters could go kill without Ralph getting mad at them for not working. Jack won the battle for leadership.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Jack was the evil or the dark side of the island. The beginning of the story started out with Jack and the rest of the boys painted as innocent. Jack was just a choir boy, but slowly his human nature was tested. He turns in to a bully, he picks on and fights with Piggy. Piggy is made an outcast by Jack teasing him about being a â€Å"fatty†. Jack also isolated Simon from the group by making fun of Simon’s view of the beast, shown in this

Nature verses nurture Essay

The nature versus nurture debate is an argument over whether nature plays a primary role in the development of an individual (heredity), or the environment (nurture). Nature, as understood by Psychologists, refers to physical characteristics that are biologically inherited, such as the color of skin, eye or texture of hair. Nurture on the other hand, refers to environmental influences after conception, such as our experiences (McLeod 2011). The debate has been controversial and ongoing for decades; Psychologists have tried to determine whether a person’s development is predisposed by DNA or his environment. So the questions exists, is it inherited gene or is it the driving force such as upbringing and nurturing from parents and caregivers that influences a child to grow up to become a lawyer, doctor, or a professional athlete. Both theories are essentially at opposite ends of the spectrum. Those who adopt an extreme hereditary approach (nativists) are of the belief that the characteristics or the human specie are a product of evolution and that our individual differences are due to the unique genetic makeup of the individual. At the opposite end of the spectrum, are environmentalists (empiricists) who believe that at birth the human mind is a blank slate that during development is gradually filled with our experiences (McLeod, 2007). In this paper we will look to two studies exploring the controversial nature versus nurture debate, make comparisons between them and discuss the conclusion of each study. John Bowlby (1907-1990) was a psychoanalyst who believed that mental health and behavioral problems could be attributed to early childhood. In his evolutionary Theory of Attachment developed after World War II, he suggests that children come into the world â€Å"biologically pre-programmed to form attachments with others,† as this is a means of survival. According to his original theory, infants have a universal need to seek close proximity with their caregiver. He observed that children experience intense distress when separated from their mothers and this shaped his belief that there is a fundamental link between early infant separations with the mother and later maladjustment (McLeod, 2009). Many subsequent theories have developed in support of this theory; Rudolph Schaffer and Peggy Emerson in 1964, studied 60 babies at monthly intervals for the first 18 months of life. The children were all studied in their own home and involved visiting the babies monthly for approximately one year. During this time, the caregivers were interviewed and all interactions with the babies were observed (McLeod, 2009). In contrast, Albert Bandura developed the Social Learning Theory in support of the nurture debate. He believed that people learn from each other through the process of observation, imitation and modeling. In 1961 he conducted an experiment called the â€Å"Bobo Doll Experiment,† to investigate if social behaviors can be acquired by imitation. The methodology of his study involved testing 36 boys and girls from the Stanford University Nursery School between the ages of three and six years. One male and female adult role model was chosen to demonstrate aggressive behavior. 24 boys and girls were allowed to watch a role model behaving aggressively towards a toy called a â€Å"Bobo doll. † The adults were told to attack the doll in destructive way, using hands, feet, weapons, or abusive language. Another 24 children were exposed to a non-aggressive model and the final 24 children were used as a controlled group and not exposed to any model or aggressive behavior at all. All the children were tested individually through three stages; â€Å"modeling, aggression arousal and delayed imitation† (McLeod, 2011). When the two studies are compared, many differences can be identified, but only a few similarities. In both studies, the subjects used were children. The researchers used an observational approach to undertake their study, the results of which support each theory. During both studies, the subjects were observed during normal activities and their behaviors evaluated through a series of stages. The first identifiable difference between studies was the type of study undertaken. A longitudinal study was undertaken in The Attachment Theory. It was conducted over a period of 18 months; while the Social Learning Theory was an experiment conducted over one day using matched pairs design. The second difference between studies was where they took place: the Attachment Theory studied infants in their own homes, while the Social Learning Theory conducted the experiment in a play nursery. Children at different ages were used in both studies: from birth to 18 months in the Attachment Theory, and from three to six years in the Social Learning Theory. In the Social Learning Theory experiment, all the children were pre-tested for aggression before the behavior was introduced to one group. No behavior was introduced in the Attachment Theory study, infants were observed in their normal routine and daily interactions. One final observable difference between the studies was that a controlled group was used in the â€Å"Bobo Doll Experiment† of The Social Learning Theory, while no controlled group was used in the Attachment Theory study (McLeod 2009, 2011). The Attachment Theory study results indicate that babies develop attachment in the following sequence: (1) up to three months of age where the baby responds equally to any caregiver, (2) after four months where there is a preference for certain people, (3) after seven months where there is a special preference for a single attachment figure, (4) and after nine months where they develop multiple attachments. The conclusion of the study proved babies look to particular people for security, comfort and protection. Fear and unhappiness is shown when separated from that special person. According to the study the most important thing in forming attachment is not who feeds and changes the child, but who plays and communicates with him or her (McLeod, 2009). In the second study, the â€Å"Bobo Doll Experiment† findings supported Bandura’s Social Learning Theory. Children learn social behavior such as aggression through the process of observation learning, i.e. watching the behavior of another person. During the â€Å"experiment† the children exposed to the violent model tended to imitate the exact behavior they had observed when the adult left the room. The children in the non-aggressive group behave less aggressively than those in the control group, and boys behaved more aggressively than girls. The study also showed that boys who observed an adult male behaving violently were more influenced than those who had observed a female model aggressive behavior. Boys were more likely to imitate physical acts of violence, while girls were more likely to imitate verbal aggression (McLeod, 2011). Many experts believe today, that behavior and development are influenced by both nature and nurture; one does not exist without the other. Some psychologists believe that learning continues even through adulthood. While few people take the extreme inherited or extreme environmental approach, researchers and experts are now consumed with the degree to which biology and environment influence behavior. References McLeod, S. A. (2011). Albert Bandura/ Social learning theory- Simply psychology. Retrieved 10/01/2013 from http://www. simplypsychology. org/baddura. html McLeod, S. A. (2009). Attachment Theory – Simply psychology. Retrieved 10/04/2013 from http://www. simplypsychology. org/attachment. html McLeod, S. A. (2011). Bobo Doll Experiment- Simply psychology. Retrieved 10/03/2013 from http://www. simplypsychology. org/bobo-doll. html McLeod, S. A. (2011). Nature Nurture in Psychology- Simply psychology. Retrieved 10/05/2013 from http://www. simplypsychology. org/naturevsnurture. html.

Facebook And Its Effects On Self Esteem Essay - 2048 Words

Instagram is filled with collections of filtered images, encouraging actions of bragging and â€Å"showing off,† which can lead to negative impacts on self-esteem, particularly in female adolescents and millennials. Unlike Facebook and its various features, Instagram is focused on photos and simply posting one’s best pictures. In recent years, Instagram has developed to become a strategy that emphasizes â€Å"overall feed aesthetics,† clever caption ideas, follower to following ratio, the number of likes and comments per photo, and achieving â€Å"perfection† and â€Å"popularity† through one’s profiles. Instagram is also a platform more attached to a wider audience network ranging from best friends to distant acquaintances and even strangers. Teenage girls and young adult women are most likely to partake in these â€Å"strategic† Instagram actions and are the most vulnerable to the impact that social media can have on their body image (Klein). Instagram can be classified as a virtual non-reality where people cleverly pick and choose what photos they want to define their online identity and to establish their personal brand. However, all of the efforts to establish the ideal self image on Instagram can lead to depression when users observe inconsistencies between their cyber self and actual self (Sunstrum). For example, a user can post a picture from a dream vacation a couple weeks after, and a follower comments, â€Å"you have a perfect life! So jealous!† In reality, at the time, the user could be inShow MoreRelatedMirror, Mirror on My Facebook Wall: Effects of Exposure to Facebook on Self-Esteem4399 Words   |  18 Pages1089/cyber.2009.0411 Mirror, Mirror on my Facebook Wall: Effects of Exposure to Facebook on Self-Esteem Amy L. Gonzales, M.A., and Jeffrey T. Hancock, Ph.D. Abstract Contrasting hypotheses were posed to test the effect of Facebook exposure on self-esteem. 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